New Hampshire

New Hampshire votes like every election is a job interview — and most candidates don’t get hired.

Proletariat Breakdown (Turnout-Weighted)

Economic Voters — ~50%

Voters motivated by taxes, cost control, and functional government that stays out of the way.

Includes:

• Tax-averse voters (no income tax, no sales tax)

• Small business and self-employed voters

• Property-tax–sensitive homeowners

• Competence / process voters (“don’t break the system”)

• Infrastructure & service reliability voters (especially winter response)

Unifying logic:
Government should be cheap, competent, and invisible.

Social Voters — ~50%

Voters motivated by autonomy, identity, norms, and fairness — but allergic to moralizing.

Includes:

• Independence / libertarian-leaning voters

• Democracy / norms voters

• Anti-corruption & institutional trust voters

• Identity / belonging voters (local-first, not national)

• Habit / party-loyal voters (thin but persistent)

Unifying logic:
Leave me alone. Play fair. Don’t lie.

Political Makeup Score (American Proletariat Index)

Scale: –5 (strong Republican) → 0 (balanced) → +5 (strong Democratic)

• Overall State Lean: +0.2 (true swing, high volatility)

• Economic Axis: –0.5

• Social Axis: +0.8

• Chaos Sensitivity: High

• Turnout Elasticity: Very High

Interpretation:
New Hampshire does not lean ideologically.
It leans situationally.

State vs. Major Cities

Area

Political Lean

Notes

New Hampshire (Statewide)

D+0.2

Perfect balance, mood-driven

Manchester

D+1.5

Working-class, cost-sensitive

Nashua

D+2.0

Suburban, commuter-heavy

Concord

D+0.5

Government workers, pragmatists

Key takeaway:
Urban areas tilt Democratic, but nothing overwhelms the state’s independent core.

Voting Structure (Retail Politics Heaven)

Primary system:

• Semi-open primaries (undeclared voters choose which primary to vote in)

General election:

• Plurality

Registration:

• Same-day voter registration available

Voting method:

• In-person voting dominant

• Absentee voting available but secondary

ID requirements:

• Photo ID required or affidavit option

Structural effect:
Same-day registration + in-person voting + small scale = maximum voter scrutiny and candidate accountability.

Political Personality

Skeptical. Direct. Unimpressed.

New Hampshire politics:

• Rewards authenticity

• Punishes arrogance instantly

• Favors candidates who show up repeatedly

• Treats politics as a job interview, not a rally

This is retail politics without mercy.

Economic Reality

• No income or sales tax

• High property taxes

• Strong commuter economy tied to Boston

• Aging population

• Tight labor markets

Economic voters want low taxes and reliable services, not grand visions.

Social Reality

• Strong independence ethic

• Low tolerance for culture-war theatrics

• High value placed on fairness and process

• Identity politics underperform unless localized

Social politics here is procedural, not expressive.

What Actually Wins in New Hampshire

Candidates who:

• Are physically present and accessible

• Speak plainly

• Respect voter intelligence

• Avoid ideological overreach

• Can explain policy in one sentence

Charisma helps.
Spin kills.

Reaction to National Chaos

When national politics destabilize:

• New Hampshire reacts quickly

• Ticket-splitting increases

• Party loyalty weakens

• “Adult in the room” candidates gain ground

Chaos turns this into a competence referendum.

How to Vote in New Hampshire (Plain English)

• You can register on Election Day

• If undeclared, you can choose either party’s primary

• You vote mostly in person

• Bring photo ID or sign an affidavit

• Absentee voting is available if eligible

One-Sentence Summary

New Hampshire votes like every election is a job interview — and most candidates don’t get hired.

To make sure every state gets its turn, the next three I’d recommend are:

• Arizona (swing + structure) | Massachusetts (technocratic dominance) | Washington, DC (non-state, high symbolic pressure)