Democrat | Open Seat
Lt. Gov. of Minnesota
Who she is
Peggy Flanagan is the Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota (2019–present), a former state legislator, and a long-time community activist. She’s a citizen of the White Earth Nation and was the first Native American woman elected to statewide office in Minnesota. Her political identity is rooted in progressive community organizing, equity issues, and social justice.
Background that matters
Led on issues like missing and murdered Indigenous relatives, tribal consultation, childcare support, and gender-affirming care.
Known for advocacy on social and cultural inclusion and grassroots engagement.
Running to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith in a rare open seat race.
How Minnesota voters tend to see her
Supporters: Early frontrunner with strong identity appeal, deep community ties, broad progressive base.
Skeptics: Some Democratic moderates worry her progressive brand could be too narrow for a statewide swing electorate.
Bottom line:
Flanagan reads as a relational progressive who can mobilize key Democratic coalitions across metro and Indigenous communities.
Democrat | Open Seat
U.S. Congress
Who she is
Angie Craig is a U.S. Representative from Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District since 2019 and one of the first openly LGBTQ+ members of Congress from the state. She built her political career in a competitive district that blends suburban and rural voters, and she’s seen as a moderate, policy-focused Democrat with experience in federal governance.
Background that matters
Former journalist and businesswoman before entering politics.
Has worked on agriculture, small business, and bipartisan issues in Congress.
Announced her Senate bid as part of the race to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith.
How Minnesota voters tend to see her
Supporters: Broad eyebrow appeal among moderates, suburban women, and independents; experienced legislator.
Skeptics: Some progressives view her as not distinct enough from GOP compromise politics.
Bottom line:
Craig reads as a centrist Democrat who can bridge moderate and progressive currents in Minnesota.
Republican | Open Seat
Navy SEAL
Who he is
Adam Schwarze is a Republican U.S. Senate candidate and retired Navy SEAL and U.S. Marine Corps infantryman running for the open seat. He frames his candidacy around service, national security, and conservative values rooted in discipline and duty.
Background that matters
Served over two decades with multiple deployments and leadership in special operations.
Focuses his campaign on strengthening the economy, securing the border, supporting law enforcement, and parental rights.
Portrays himself as a “values-driven” defender of Minnesota’s interests against “failed policies.”
How Minnesota voters tend to see him
Supporters: Appeals to veterans, law-and-order voters, and core Republican constituencies.
Skeptics: Lacks statewide political office experience and has to build recognition outside GOP base.
Bottom line:
Schwarze reads as a military-credentialed conservative with appeal in the Republican primary but tougher headwinds in the purple general environment.
Republican | Open Seat
Fmr. NFL Sideline Reporter
Who she is
Michele Tafoya is a Republican U.S. Senate candidate and former NFL sideline reporter who has entered the race with high-profile backing from the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Her entry injects celebrity and outsider branding into a crowded GOP field.
Background that matters
Covered NFL games for networks like NBC before retiring and becoming a political podcaster.
Endorsed by national GOP leaders as the Republican face of the party’s Senate bid.
Advocates public safety, immigration enforcement, combating fraud, and conservative cultural positions.
How Minnesota voters tend to see her
Supporters: Recognizable name and communicator style with appeal to traditional and pro-Trump Republicans.
Skeptics: Mixed past positions (including on abortion and Trump) spark skepticism among some conservatives.
Bottom line:
Tafoya reads as a high-visibility GOP outsider with some base appeal but potential vulnerability to criticism on ideological consistency.
Minnesota’s electorate is purple to blue-leaning, and statewide races here balance progressive mobilization, moderate appealing to independents, and limited Republican success — no GOP has won statewide since 2006.
Flanagan’s statewide recognition, community identity, and activist grounding give her a strong fit for the Democratic coalition in Minnesota while also energizing turnout in urban and suburban precincts. Her progressive voice connects with both identity and substantive policy voters without leaning too obscure for statewide reach.
Fit highlights:
Relational trust: High
Statewide visibility: High
Coalition breadth: Broad
Institutional credibility: High
Read: Flanagan fits Minnesota’s coalition approach — big metro edges plus rural outreach.
Craig’s federal experience in a competitive district gives her executive and crossover appeal. Her brand as a moderate Democrat and legislator can attract independents and suburban voters, though she may need to differentiate herself from Flanagan on big-ticket issues.
Fit highlights:
Executive governance: Strong
Moderate outreach: Strong
Coalition adaptability: High
Name recognition: Growing
Read: Craig fits well as a bridge candidate for centrists, though her primary appeal competes with Flanagan’s progressive energy.
Tafoya’s star power and GOP backing give her visibility and fundraising potential in the Republican primary, but Minnesota’s statewide lean and history against GOP Senate winners create steeper hurdles. Her relatively recent political emergence means she’s building credibility under scrutiny.
Fit highlights:
Base GOP fit: Strong
Name recognition: High
Statewide crossover: Moderate
Policy clarity: Medium
Read: Strong primary presence but conditional in a purple general electorate.
Schwarze’s military credentials and value-driven narrative resonate with core Republican voters, but Minnesota’s general electorate requires broader economic and social appeal. Lacking statewide office experience and reliant on a heavily conservative message, his fit beyond the GOP base is more limited.
Fit highlights:
GOP base fit: Strong
Statewide visibility: Moderate-Low
Cross-coalition reach: Limited
Policy appeal: Conservative-centric
Read: Compelling for party activists, tougher for statewide appeal.
In Minnesota’s 2026 U.S. Senate race to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith, Peggy Flanagan offers the broadest fit for the state’s progressive and working-class coalitions, followed by Angie Craig’s moderate and executive strength, while Michele Tafoya and Adam Schwarze’s Republican offerings have strong base appeal but more conditional statewide resonance in a state that hasn’t elected a GOP statewide official in nearly two decades.